Understanding Football Odds: Decimal, Fractional & Implied Probability Explained
Learn how bookmakers set odds, how to convert decimal odds into probability percentages, and how to spot value betting opportunities.
Always calculate implied probability before placing a bet to verify if the return justifies the real statistical risk.
Odds represent both the likelihood of an outcome occurring and the payout multiplier you receive on a successful wager. Master the basics to become a smarter, more disciplined bettor.
1. What Are Decimal Odds?
Decimal odds are the standard format used across Nigeria and international betting platforms like 8XBet NG. They express the total payout (stake + profit) returned for every 1 unit wagered.
Formula: Total Return = Stake × Decimal Odds
Example: A ₦1,000 bet on odds of 1.85 yields ₦1,850 total return (₦850 net profit).
2. Calculating Implied Probability
To calculate what probability the bookmaker's odds represent, use the simple inversion formula:
Implied Probability (%) = (1 ÷ Decimal Odds) × 100
- Odds of 2.00 = (1 ÷ 2.00) × 100 = 50% Probability
- Odds of 1.50 = (1 ÷ 1.50) × 100 = 66.7% Probability
- Odds of 4.00 = (1 ÷ 4.00) × 100 = 25% Probability
3. What Is Value Betting?
Value exists when your personal assessed probability of an outcome is HIGHER than the implied probability calculated from the bookmaker's odds.
If our expert prediction engine assesses Arsenal to have a 60% chance of winning, but the odds offered are 2.10 (implied probability 47.6%), this represents a +12.4% Value Bet!